Brier score
–
0 perfect · 0.25 coin flip
Accuracy
–
directional, resolved only
Avg confidence
–
should match accuracy
Resolved / open
–
Calibration
Stated probability vs how often it actually happened. Points on the dashed line = perfect calibration. Below the line = overconfident.
Brier score over time
Running average as predictions resolve. Down and to the right is improvement; the dashed line is the 0.25 coin-flip baseline.
What to learn
Generated from your record.
By category
Blind spots show up as high Brier scores.
| Category | Resolved | Open | Brier | Accuracy |
|---|
Open predictions
| # | Statement | P(true) | Category | Due |
|---|
Resolved predictions
| # | Statement | P(true) | Outcome | Brier | Resolved |
|---|